Are India the main favorites for the 2026 T20 World Cup? The Super 8 stage starts tomorrow, February 21, with India facing South Africa. Unlike other teams in Group 1, India had relatively easier opponents—mostly Associate Nations and Pakistan, which at the moment is not among the top teams.
In India’s group, they have South Africa, the West Indies, and Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has performed well, winning against teams like Australia and Sri Lanka. South Africa’s group included New Zealand, Afghanistan, the UAE, and Canada. The West Indies had a lighter group with England as the only established Test team, alongside Nepal, Scotland, and Italy. Despite their rankings, these teams put up a good fight.
India’s matches so far have shown some one-sided results but also highlighted weaknesses in their batting. As the defending champions, India entered the tournament as favorites, having recently defeated New Zealand 4-1, marking them as top contenders.
Batting Concerns
Expectations for explosive batting were high, especially with players like Abhishek Sharma, Ishan Kishan, Tilak Varma, and Suryakumar Yadav in the top order. Given the group they were drawn into, “300-par” scores seemed possible, though maybe overly ambitious.
Along with Pakistan, India faced three Associate Nations: Namibia, the Netherlands, and the USA, where India’s performance was underwhelming. They lost wickets to players like Saim Ayub and Salman Agha, with Usman Tariq marking his debut match against India and taking wickets.
India struggled against off-spin bowling. In a match against Namibia, captain Gerhard Erasmus, ranked 95th in ICC bowling, took four wickets with his off-spin. Similarly, Aryan Dutt from the Netherlands, ranked 100th, dismissed both openers, Abhishek Sharma and Ishan Kishan, in the PowerPlay.
India currently has a scoring rate of 6.23 runs per over against off-spin, only better than Nepal and Oman. Their batting average against this bowling type is a poor 13.25, indicating a significant problem as they lose wickets frequently.
Middle Order Issues
India faced challenges even against lesser-ranked teams. The middle order faltered until players like Ishan Kishan, who scored 77, and Shivam Dube, who contributed to a late push, stepped in. Without Suryakumar Yadav’s 84 against the UAE, the outcome could have been different. Hardik Pandya also played a crucial role against Namibia, scoring 53 runs.
A major concern remains despite Ishan’s form. Abhishek Sharma, who was expected to perform, suffered from a stomach issue, causing disruptions. Tilak Varma has been consistent but struggles to rotate the strike and convert starts into larger scores.
India’s scoring in the crucial overs between 7 and 15 is the lowest in Group 1 at 7.05 runs. South Africa leads the group with 8.40 runs, aided by Aiden Markram’s quick 50, and Zimbabwe follows at 8.14 due to Sikandar Raza’s strong innings. Additionally, India has a 41.6% dot ball rate during this phase, indicating more missed scoring opportunities.
Fielding Problems
India is second in dropped catches in the tournament, with nine, just behind Ireland, which has ten. The team averages 2–3 dropped chances per match. Even teams like Namibia have performed better in the field statistically.
In their last group game on February 18, India dropped two catches on consecutive balls, including a notable collision between captain Suryakumar Yadav and Rinku Singh due to miscommunication.
Against Pakistan, Kuldeep dropped an easy catch that resulted in a boundary, leading to visible tension with Suryakumar after the match.
Structural Concerns
The change in pitch conditions from Colombo to Ahmedabad has affected India’s performance. Adjustments were needed, particularly as bowlers with variations became more effective. All remaining matches will be held in India, possibly impacting overall outcomes.
Tilak Varma typically bats at No. 3, with Suryakumar at No. 4. Against off-spin, Tilak managed 26 runs off 31 balls while Suryakumar scored 28 off 27 before being dismissed. A lineup change could be beneficial, but statistics suggest Tilak handles early pressure while Suryakumar accelerates later on.
Upcoming Matches
India faces South Africa on February 22. They will contend with Aiden Markram’s off-spin options, along with Keshav Maharaj and George Linde. Zimbabwe’s Sikandar Raza may also contribute with the ball. The West Indies could deploy Roston Chase and other spinners for their matches.
With three matches left, India must prove their capability to be considered true favorites. A single defeat could significantly shake their prospects. Despite the statistics suggesting that teams rarely win a T20 World Cup at home, fans are hoping for strong performances from the team.
